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How will the 19th CPC Congress affect world economy?

Moscow, October 19 - "Vesti.Ekonomika". The start of the meeting of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, only in its name and general concept, is reminiscent of the times of the Soviet Politburo. Its results may have a greater impact on the vector of movement of the world economy than it was during the Soviet era, says Vladimir Kapustyansky, head of the investment consulting department of KIT Finance Broker.

Vladimir Kapustyansky, head of the investment consulting department of KIT "Finance Broker"

Statements about the role of the party, the unity of the people, and the growth of the welfare of the population are traditional for such events. The rhetoric about the Cold War and the power of diplomacy stems from the geopolitical situation in the world. There is no need to expect loud speeches and sharp movements at the 19th CPC Congress, which was confirmed by Xi Jinping’s speech.

IN current state The issue of nomenklatura appointments in the country's top leadership is important. Because the foreign and domestic policies of the state will depend on which persons will be approved.

The political model of modern China is such that, according to an unspoken rule, the country's leadership position can be held for no more than 10 years. Xi Jinping will try to change this practice by appointing people loyal to him to key positions and breaking the age limit rule. This makes the groundwork for 2022, when the question of the powers of the current General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee will arise.

During the five years of XI Jinping's rule, China's GDP grew from $8.56 trillion to $12 trillion and shares 2nd and 3rd place in the world with the European Union. It should be noted that the assessment of growth rates at the beginning of 2017 was characterized by the prefix “worst”, although the latest data for the second quarter of 2017 turned out to be better than expert estimates.

The scale of the size of China's economy, forecasts for the pace of development, and most importantly, the course that the old and new team will take are important for other participants in the world community. I remember the acute phase of the market decline in 2015, when the Chinese market capitalization lost 22% in 4 trading sessions in August.

The Chinese authorities urgently had to put out the fire that had started with verbal and monetary interventions. Now everything is different, and it will not be limited to speculation alone, and here’s why.

China is little visible in foreign policy, which is traditional. It has colossal gold and foreign exchange reserves. From time to time, he has friction with the US authorities over the exchange rate of the national currency and investments in American debt. All the attention of the country's leadership is aimed at infrastructural transformations. There is no need to earn so-called points in the external arena.

The global business community continues to concentrate a significant share of its production capacity in the Middle Kingdom. The Secretary General declares the openness of markets for international investment, guarantees the legitimate interests of investors, and intends to promote the development of trade relations and stimulate capital investment.

However, the situation in the world is changing. US authorities expect support on the issue with North Korea. Friction remains over disputed territories with Japan and India. The growth rate of the Chinese economy is the worst in 20 years.

Most likely, after the situation in the Middle East is resolved, the emphasis will shift to the Asia-Pacific region, where China plays the first fiddle and it will not be able to withdraw into itself. It’s no longer possible to just study internal affairs and strengthen the vertical of power.

Such a challenge could become a trigger for a revision of assessments of the attractiveness of Chinese territory by the world community. They will begin to look for a new effective place for business if suddenly something does not follow the course laid out by the scriptwriters in political institutions. A wave of relocation of enterprises, for example to India, is likely. For several years now, financial publications have been predicting its role as a new locomotive of the world economy.

And then they will begin to overestimate the capabilities of the Celestial Empire, its stability and prospects. At such moments, as practice shows, increased turbulence occurs in the markets: capital begins to look for a safe haven, avoiding risk.

On October 25, 2017, the day after the end of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, which elected a new composition of the Party Central Committee, the first plenum of the CPC Central Committee was held. He re-elected Xi Jinping general secretary the largest political force in the world. This decision, as well as the election of seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee and 25 members of the Politburo, marked the creation of a new power configuration around the Chinese leader.

• Xi Jinping and new members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee
• Reuters
• Jason Lee

Among the seven members of the standing committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, five people have changed, except for Xi Jinping himself and the head of the PRC government, Li Keqiang. The newly appointed members are about 65 years old and have all previously served in various party positions in the provinces and Beijing.

The third-ranking head of the CPC Central Committee office, Li Zhanshu, worked in the party apparatus of the Hebei region in the 1980s together with Xi Jinping and is considered his close ally. Vice Premier of the State Council Wang Yang, who is fourth, on the contrary, is considered close to the previous leader of China, Hu Jintao, a representative of the Komsomol group (party leaders who emerged from the bureaucracy of the Communist Youth League of China). Xi Jinping is considered one of the “princes” - descendants of the CPC leaders from the time of Mao Zedong.

The fifth person in the party is now the head of the Political Research Center of the Central Committee, Wang Huning, who is responsible for the ideology of the CCP. This native of Shanghai rose to prominence under Jiang Zemin, who represented the “Shanghai Group.” Sixth is the head of the Central Commission of the Communist Party of China for Inspecting the Discipline of the Central Committee, Zhao Leji, who will lead the fight against corruption, replacing the resigned party veteran Wang Qishan. Zhao Leji joined the Politburo five years ago when Xi Jinping came to power. Finally, Han Zheng, head of the Shanghai party organization, became the seventh member of the standing committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee.

Among the new members of the Politburo are Liu He, head of the office of the Central Committee's working group on finance and economics and one of Xi Jinping's main economic advisers, as well as Chen Ming'er, head of the party organization in Chongqing, who is also considered very close to Xi Jinping.

“The composition of the standing committee of the Politburo, which experts spoke about before the congress, has almost completely come true,” said sinologist Alexey Maslov, a professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, in an interview with RT. - I entered there most of supporters of Xi Jinping."

World leaders congratulated the President of the People's Republic of China on the completion of the congress and his re-election to the highest party post.

“The voting results fully confirmed the political authority of Xi Jinping, broad support for his course towards the accelerated socio-economic development of China and the strengthening of its international positions,” Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized.

US President Donald Trump also congratulated the Chinese leader. Speaking on Fox Business, he said that “now you can call (Si. - RT) Emperor of China, but he is called Chairman."

Living classic

According to experts, Xi Jinping managed to achieve the main thing at this congress - he significantly strengthened his power by placing people loyal to himself in key positions. At the same time, for the first time in a long time, the figure of a successor was not identified at the congress. Political scientists believe this means that Xi Jinping plans to remain the party leader after 2022, when the next congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held.

• Xi Jinping at the Chinese Communist Party Congress
• Reuters
• Aly Song

The strengthening of Xi Jinping’s position was also reflected in the fact that he was the third after Chinese party leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping to be mentioned in the new edition of the party charter, which was approved by the congress. Moreover, Xi Jinping’s concept of “ new era socialism with Chinese characteristics" received the status of "ideas". Previously, the term was applied only to "Mao Zedong Thought". The ideology of Deng Xiaoping, for example, was called only a “theory”, emphasizing the superiority of Mao. The current Chinese leader has actually stood on a par with the founding father of the PRC.

“Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics of a New Era is the continuation and development of Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important ideas of the Triple Representation and the scientific concept of development, the latest achievement of the Sinicization of Marxism<…>as well as guidance for action in the implementation of the great revival of the Chinese nation by the Party and the people,” Xinhua news agency quotes the resolution of the 19th CPC Congress on the draft revised party charter.

“Now Xi Jinping is joining the ranks of major theoreticians of Marxism,” says Maslov. — Essentially, he finds himself on a par with Marx, Lenin, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. That is, Xi Jinping positions himself as the peak of the development of world Marxist thought.”

In addition, this step, from the point of view of a political scientist, demonstrates that the Chairman of the PRC plans to remain in power for a long time.

“Enshrining Xi Jinping’s name in the charter cements both his role in history and in in this case It doesn’t matter what his position will be called in five years,” the expert emphasized. “Obviously, he will remain an active leader of the country. The policies he outlines will continue until at least 2027.”

Socialism with a Chinese face

The meaning of the policy of “building socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era” is, first of all, to improve the well-being of ordinary Chinese. If previously the Chinese economy developed mainly due to the production of products for export, now the country’s authorities plan to primarily increase domestic demand.

• Beijing streets
• Reuters
• Tyrone Siu

The 19th Congress of the CPC set ambitious goals for the party and the state: by 2021, the centennial anniversary of the CPC, to complete the construction of a middle-income society and overcome poverty.

Already, as Sergei Sanakoev, president of the Russian-Chinese Analytical Center, noted in a conversation with RT, up to 300 million people can be classified as the middle class in China.

“These are people who are able to buy houses, cars, and travel abroad,” the expert explained. “A middle-income society means that most of China’s 1.5 billion people will approach this level of consumption.”

Beijing plans to achieve this goal not through extensive development of existing sectors of the economy, but by actively promoting new technologies. Therefore, the next task announced by the congress is to build a modernized innovative economy with a serious environmental component by 2035. For this purpose, the “Beautiful China” environmental program is being launched. Experts note that already 55% economic growth China is provided by high-tech industries.

The next landmark is 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. By this time, China intends to complete the construction of a “modernized socialist state.”

“Taking into account the certain linguistic specificity of the imagery of thinking that our eastern neighbors exhibit, I would state that by the middle of the 21st century they are planning to build communism,” Sanakoev clarified.

Global project

Increased attention to internal development China does not mean a course towards self-isolation and abandonment of global ambitions. On the contrary, among the decisions of the 19th CPC Congress was the inclusion of Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative in the party charter. This is a China-oriented strategy for the economic integration of the Eurasian space.

Leading ideologists found their place in the new composition of the Politburo foreign policy China of the last five years: former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who accompanied Xi Jinping on his visits to Russia and the United States, Li Zhanshu, and Wang Huning, whom Western experts call the father of a more aggressive foreign policy towards the West.

China not only declares its course towards building a great power, but also emphasizes that it is ready to try on the role of a global leader, experts say.

“China’s major merits at the congress were noted for its participation in the creation of a number of organizations: the One Belt, One Road project, BRICS, SCO, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,” notes sinologist Alexey Maslov. “This means that China is not just beginning to play an active role in world politics, but is also forming a new political space.”

The ideological basis for this policy is the concept of a “community of common destiny” formulated back in 2015, which the Chinese leader voiced at the anniversary session of the UN General Assembly.

“Countries must live a common destiny, defend common values ​​that are obvious from the results of World War II, and build a single multipolar safe world,” Sergei Sanakoev explains the meaning of this concept.

Xi Jinping spoke about the “community of a common destiny” both at the congress and at the end of the first plenum of the renewed CPC Central Committee.

“The Chinese people, with self-confidence and self-respect, will resolutely defend their country's sovereignty, security and development interests.<…>At the same time, China, together with other countries, will actively work to build a community with a shared future for mankind, constantly making new and more significant contributions to the noble cause of peace and development of mankind,” Xinhua quoted Xi Jinping as saying.

Together with Russia

Experts note that this concept is close to Russia’s orientation towards building a multipolar world.

“We offer a much safer world than the model of Western globalism, which is obviously in a global crisis,” Sanakoev asserts.

As the political scientist notes, it is under Xi Jinping that Beijing and Moscow are increasingly supporting each other, interacting both in world politics and in the economy.

“We are building serious integration processes, we even have an integration of integrations,” he emphasized, referring to the potential for linking the “One Belt, One Road” project and the Eurasian Economic Union.

• Construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline
• RIA News
• Alexey Nikolsky

According to Sanakoev, the two countries can expect strengthened cooperation, deeper interaction, especially in the Far Eastern regions of Russia, increased trade turnover and attraction of investment.

“Not only energy cooperation is actively developing, but much more seriously such areas as space, aviation, nuclear energy - everything that concerns industries with high added value,” says the expert.

In turn, Maslov is confident that strengthening the position of Xi Jinping’s supporters in the PRC leadership will make relations between Moscow and Beijing more pragmatic and result-oriented.

“China is now talking a lot about the effectiveness of the actions it is taking. This means that we should not expect any empty investments or investments for declarative projects,” the expert believes.

At the same time, Maslov predicts, the military-political component of cooperation will also develop. According to him, Beijing intends to make its army and navy one of the strongest in the world and is interested both in Russian technologies and in the military and diplomatic support of our country. Another area of ​​cooperation is expanding Moscow’s participation in the One Belt, One Road project.

“China will one way or another involve Russia in more active cooperation with regard to the One Belt, One Road project.” The activation or inactivation of investments in Russia depends on participation in this project,” the expert concluded.

Illustration copyright EPA Image caption On the eve of the opening of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing, special security measures were taken

On the eve of the opening of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, special security measures were taken in Beijing.

It is prohibited to light an open fire near the Great Hall of the People (which forced some restaurants to temporarily stop working), you will not be able to rent an apartment in the center of Beijing using the services of the popular Airbnb service, the delivery of liquids, knives and even toy weapons to the capital is limited, unmanned aerial vehicles and balloons are prohibited .

The congress promises significant changes in the Chinese political hierarchy. Firstly, apparently, the traditional rotation of top officials of the state every 10 years is coming to an end.

As expected, the number of seats on the Standing Committee of the CPC Politburo will be reduced from seven to five - which means that the most likely successors of Xi Jinping and Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang (in fact, the country's Prime Minister) simply will not get into it and, as a result, will not will be able to succeed Chairman Xi when he retires.

However, one of them, Sun Zhengcai, who was detained in July of this year and removed from all party posts, apparently will not go anywhere, and the political prospects of the second candidate, Hu Chunhua, are, perhaps, completely disappointing.

Secondly, the principle of collective leadership of the country, observed since the time of Deng Xiaoping, will apparently also be revised. Formally, the position of Chairman of the People's Republic of China cannot be held for more than two five-year terms in a row: this is contrary to the constitution.

Games of “castling” by analogy with Russia are unlikely to attract Xi Jinping, and there is no one to leave power for five years with a guarantee of its return. But this position, according to observers, is not key for him. It is much more important to maintain the post of General Secretary of the CPC and control over the armed forces, that is, the post of Chairman of the Party's Central Military Council.

IN modern history There were such precedents in China - both Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin retained the post of supreme commander several years after formally leaving power.

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China's political tradition requires that holders of top government positions not remain in office beyond the age of 68 and resign at the next congress. True, this tradition is informal, and the current balance of power in the Chinese elite does not prevent Xi from circumventing this rule.

It doesn’t concern him yet - the chairman is still 64 years old - but it will be very interesting to look at the fate of 69-year-old Wang Qishan, a longtime friend of Xi Jinping and the head of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and essentially the internal security forces, and here’s why.

Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has launched an aggressive anti-corruption campaign that has seen about a million people lose their jobs. Some analysts believe that in fact the goal of the campaign was to cleanse the party and bureaucratic ranks of Xi’s opponents or simply unreliable people, who, of course, were replaced by supporters of the chairman. Now it’s the turn of senior management.

According to observers, during the current congress, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (who previously competed with Xi Jinping in the fight for the presidency of the PRC) may resign from his post, and Wang Qishan will take his place. Wang is considered a good manager and financier and, in all likelihood, will be a better premier than Li, for whom observers predict some honorable but unimportant position.

Wang's close ties to Xi and his managerial experience are two indispensable qualities for the implementation of structural reforms, which the chairman announced back in 2013 and for the sake of which he appears to be preparing to violate existing rules political governance of China.

If Wang Qishan, at 69 years old, actually takes the premiership, this, according to observers, will mean Xi Jinping’s willingness to step over the internal rules of the CCP and continue to govern the country after the next 20th Congress.

Xi Jinping’s desire to gain a foothold in power is, in general, understandable: the large-scale reforms that he is embarking on cannot be implemented within five or even ten years. However, the significant concentration of power, by any measure, in the hands of the chairman and a small group of his appointees jeopardizes the principle of leadership turnover. There are other bad symptoms.

An exhibition of the latest achievements of the Chinese government has opened in Beijing. Science, transport, military production, sports, ethnic minorities are widely represented on it, but most of all there are photographs of Xi Jinping - there are hundreds of them.

Newspaper on English language China Daily publishes almost every day on the front page about how Xi’s visit affected villages, cities and megacities, how their lives changed (for the better, of course) after the Secretary General made his proposals. Officials have emphasized in their speeches that their vision is based on Xi Jinping's.

In September, TV series in China received a new set of content regulation rules. Now they are instructed to “enhance the cultural taste of people” and “strengthen spirituality.” The Communist Party, the country, the people and national heroes - this is a collection of positive characters. And the figure of Chairman Xi must stand above all others.

Xi Jinping will present a detailed report at the congress, from which it will probably be possible to guess the vector of China's policy for the next five years. Analysts agree that it will remain stable and predictable. Stability and slowness have generally been part of Chinese political culture since ancient times. However, in the rich history of China there are many examples of how excessive concentration of power backfired on both the ruler and his power.

On the eve of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, experts unanimously predicted a further strengthening of the apparatus positions of the leader of the Chinese Communists and Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. The reality exceeded all our wildest expectations. For the first time since the death of the “great helmsman” Mao Zedong and his successor-reformer Deng Xiaoping, China has named a leader whose ideological guidelines become a guideline for the party and the nation. This is Comrade Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping's ideas have become the party's "wealth"

His report to the Party Congress with its title alone set the tone for all the subsequent transformations - “Xi Jinping’s Thoughts on Chinese-Style Socialism in a New Era.” Now the thoughts of the Secretary General of the CPC Central Committee (about the development of Marxism-Leninism, the ideas of Mao Zedong, the theory of Deng Xiaoping, the economy, society, army, etc.) organically entered into the decisions of the congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

They are even reflected in the charter of the Chinese communists. The amendment to the text of the charter adopted at the congress confirms “the richness of Xi Jinping’s ideas in the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics” and makes them a beacon for the entire party. It should be noted that during his lifetime, only the name of the founder of the People's Republic of China, Mao Zedong, was included in the CPC charter. Deng Xiaoping received this honor only after his death. So Comrade Xi is really second only to Chairman Mao.

Why did Xi Jinping so captivate the Chinese communists during his five years at the head of the country and the Communist Party? Part of the answer lies in his 3.5 hour speech at the convention. In it, Xi Jinping called for completing the “new journey to build socialism with Chinese characteristics.” In practical terms, this means achieving a middle-income society and transforming China into a rich, powerful, democratic and modernized socialist state by 2050.

Propagandists of the Communist Party have already peeled off the metaphors of their leader that were unnecessary for the world and formulated the goals of Comrade Xi briefly and simply: Deng Xiaoping sought to make China rich, Xi Jinping strong. The Chinese were convinced that Comrade Xi could achieve the stated result during his five years of work in senior positions in the state and party.

It is worth noting here that after the long and highly controversial reign of Mao Zedong, the Chinese Communists developed a form of collective party management. Now, under the authoritative and recognized leader of the Communist Party, a very influential standing committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee functions. In addition, the Secretary General of the party can be in power for no more than two terms - 10 years.

It so happened that Xi Jinping headed the Communist Party of China with two of his predecessors still alive - Jian Zemin and Hu Jintao. Formally, the former leaders of China have retired. But their comrades remained in the party, government structures and army, who continued the political line of Jiang and Hu, making it difficult for the new Chinese leader to make independent decisions.

Xi Jinping, apparently, was not happy with this situation. The first thing he did was reduce the composition of the standing committee of the Politburo of the Central Committee from nine to seven members. This reduced the ability of clans representing the interests of former leaders to influence political decision-making.

The West is afraid of “one-party dictatorship”

The second step of President Xi was his widespread fight against corruption. She not only revitalized the party and state apparatus of China, but also broke financial relationships within the clans. In the first year of the campaign, more than 160,000 Chinese officials and party leaders were arrested on corruption charges.

In five years, experts believe, the number of corrupt officials brought to justice has reached a million people. Many ministers, governors, leaders of regional party organizations, etc. went to trial. It was a painful process. The BBC cites in this regard a statement from the head of the Chinese State Committee on control over securities of Liu Shiyu, which he made at a special meeting of the Committee dedicated to preparations for the congress.

Liu said six former senior officials were planning to remove Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. He named former minister Chinese public security officer Zhou Yongkang, sentenced to life imprisonment in 2015. Two years earlier he received the same punishment former manager Party organization of the industrial center of Chongqing Bo Xilai.

This July, Sun Zhengcai, a former member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, was arrested for the same reason. He has been stripped of all party posts. In addition to them, Liu named high-ranking military personnel and summed up: “Xi Jinping has dealt with these problems and eliminated the most dangerous secret threat to the party and the country.”

With this statement, Liu Shiyu actually confirmed that there is a permanent struggle for influence within the Communist Party of China and, judging by the results of the CPC Congress that ended, Xi Jinping is waging it very successfully. The point here is not only about the rise of Comrade Xi over the party through the fixation of his political ideas in the CPC charter.

Experts attach no less importance to the formation of new elected bodies of the party. Thus, out of the seven members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Central Committee, Xi Jinping replaced five. The formal basis for this was the age of the dismissed leaders. They are over 68 years old. According to an unwritten rule in the CPC, in this case, veterans must give way to younger nominees.

In fact, the rotation carried out practically knocked out the highest governing body The Chinese Communist Party is the proteges of Jiang Zemin. Now the leadership of the PRC consists entirely of people who were included in the Politburo and the Central Committee already under Xi Jinping - in 2012 and later. Some of them belong to the Xi-loyal Hu Jintao clan. The rest are obvious creatures of the Secretary General himself.

Now Xi Jinping is calmly and confidently forming his own clan. Experts even got the impression that the Chinese leader sees his political future beyond the second election term. This is supported by the fact that the “richness of Xi Jinping’s ideas” and plans to make China a “powerful state” became the official doctrine of the Chinese Communist Party after the last congress. This is not inherited.

But something else is no less important. “Not a single party leader since Mao Zedong has concentrated as much power in his hands as one coming from old family Xi Jinping’s functionaries in the first five years of his rule,” notes Deutsche Welle columnist Matthias von Hein.

It should be added that after the last Party Congress, the concentration of power among Comrade Xi has increased even more. Indeed, in addition to reshuffles in the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, its Central Committee has been updated by 70 percent. This has not happened in the Chinese Party since 1969. Direct analogies suggest themselves.

The CPC Central Committee now not only shares the program goals of its leader, but also the public sentiments of the nation. Recent Poll public opinion showed that 70 percent of Chinese have a positive assessment of the work of Mao Zedong. Experts believe: these survey data indicate the nation’s readiness for the “one-party dictatorship” of Chairman Xi.

Xi Jinping is also ready for it. At least at the congress, he announced his intention to introduce a “social quality control system” for each of China's 730 million Internet users. Any action they take will be rewarded with special points or, conversely, punished by their removal. There are similar plans for other social projects.

The West is concerned. The economic and political will of China, gathered into a single fist after the CPC Congress, will allow Chairman Xi not only to successfully compete with the Western model of social and economic development, but also to significantly surpass it. Perhaps these expert forecasts will soon become a reality...