RKhTU im. D. I. Mendeleev.

Report on the game "Strategy"

TeamRationaland(TOV, KhTP, MC)

Moscow, 1999.

Goals and objectives of the Cabinet of Ministers.

The main goals and objectives of the Cabinet of Ministers:

build a stable, highly developed society in the country;

lead the country to sustainable development.

To do this you need:

stabilize the population. To do this, it is necessary that the birth rate and death rate be equal, but they must be as low as possible. The demographic transition must be accomplished as early and as quickly as possible; The birth rate should be reduced by increasing the social services sector and the consumption of goods, while mortality falls by increasing food consumption and improving environmental quality. Without population stabilization, all other conditions cannot be met;

develop industry to a level at which the volume of goods produced is no less than the maximum possible consumption of them by the population + financing of all industries + a certain amount of goods for export;

develop agriculture to a level at which the volume of products produced is no less than the maximum possible consumption by the population + a certain amount of products for export;

develop energy almost to the maximum possible or necessary level;

develop energy saving to the highest possible level;

develop the social services sector to the highest possible level;

maximize quality environment.

The development of a country can be called sustainable if all or almost all the main indicators are constant or approach certain values ​​over time, and this approximation is asymptotic in nature.

The main goals and objectives of the Prime Minister:

determination and implementation of a specific strategy (model) of the game;

coordinating all other ministers;

final acceptance of all decisions.

All this is especially important at the first stage of the game - during industrialization and demographic transition - since at this stage the needs for goods and energy often exceed (sometimes quite significantly) their available quantity, and their distribution is a very difficult task.

conclusions

As can be seen from the graphs, the set goals of achieving sustainable development and building a stable, highly developed society have been achieved. This was possible thanks to a timely and correctly carried out demographic transition (stabilization of the population) and industrialization (and, as a consequence, the development of all industries).

Since sustainable development has been achieved, the future of the country will be the same, i.e. the indicators will either remain unchanged (for example, all social indicators) or will approach certain values ​​(for example, the energy consumption multiplier is 0.3 , environmental quality coefficient - to 1, summary score - to 35); the only indicator that will constantly grow is available energy, which in real life means not only electricity, but also raw materials, therefore, although this indicator is constantly growing, and without any limits, this is more good than bad if apply this to the realities of the modern world.

The Cabinet of Ministers did not make any significant mistakes in the game. The consequence of the shortcomings and inconsistency of the relevant ministries was the energy crisis (see the corresponding graph), as well as the deterioration of environmental quality in the penultimate period (see the corresponding graph).

If given the opportunity to play first, the experience of some other countries would be used, which, unlike Rationaland, which chose the “pitless” development option (graph a), chose the development option “with a pit” (this option can be called “industrialization in Stalin’s style” , i.e. at the beginning of the game, the priority is the development of industry, and the high birth rate is compensated by high mortality due to the low level of nutrition of the population) (graph b) (graphs are shown schematically):

RKhTU im. D. I. Mendeleev.

Department of Sustainable Development Problems.

Report on the game "Strategy"

TeamRationaland(TOV, KhTP, MC)

Department of Energy

Minister (O-22)

Deputy (O-24)

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Stratagem

The simulation game "Stratagem" (also available in English) simulates the processes of government. The game is attended by 5 people playing the roles of ministers: Minister of Population Problems, Minister of Energy, Minister of Industry and Social Services, Minister Agriculture and Environmental Protection, Minister of Foreign Trade and Finance.
The task of ministers is to ensure the present and future needs of the population for food and consumer goods, to satisfy the population’s needs for the required amount of energy resources for domestic needs and utilities, to provide energy resources for agriculture and industrial production, to maintain the level of capital necessary for economic growth. investments in the production of goods and social services, manage foreign trade and finances of the country.
To achieve a high level of development of a country, it is necessary not only to understand the connections between the elements of the system, but to learn to coordinate the actions of all participants in the game and make joint decisions.

Course: "ECOLOGY"
IMITATION GAME
"STRATEGEM"

Stratagem

The simulation game Stratagem was developed in 1983 -1984
a group of scientists from the International Institute for Systems Analysis in
Vienna, under the direction of D. Meadows (USA).
The name of the game is an abbreviation of three English words,
characterizing the method underlying the game - strategy gaming
management - game strategic approach to management
dynamic systems. In the Russian version the game received
name "Stratagem". The main task of the authors was to find
effective
way
demonstrations
interdependencies
long-term solutions in the economy, energy use, protection
environment and public welfare.

HOW TO PLAY THE GAME

Each participant chooses the role of one of five ministers responsible for
development of the country's economy, meeting the population's needs for products
nutrition and in a healthy environment, consumer goods and energy
resources. Ministers work together as a single cabinet to make decisions about
distribution of available food products, consumer goods and
energy resources.
Their decisions influence population growth, expansion
production capacity; provision of the population with social services
(medical care and education), environmental conditions,
economic efficiency; level of exports, size of external debt.
The game has 10 rounds or periods. Decisions made at the beginning of each period
determine the development of the country over five years. Computer program
models the economy of a hypothetical country, processes decisions made
cabinet of ministers and, as a result of these decisions, receives values
reflecting the state of the country in the next period.
There are no random factors or uncertainties in the game. Team of participants in
generally has all the necessary information to achieve a high level
development of the country. The best result cannot be achieved by chance.
It is achieved by the team that is better than others able to understand
structure of cause-and-effect relationships and best organizes
decision making process

STATE OF THE COUNTRY AT THE INITIAL PERIOD
Your country is similar to many developing countries in the world. The country is relatively
well developed agricultural sector, good development opportunities
energy. There are many obstacles on the way to a developed society - a rapidly growing
population size, existing energy shortages and low levels of
labor productivity. Unlike other developing countries, the country in
is not currently burdened by external debt, so it is possible
take advantage of a loan from foreign banks as an effective means
economic development.
POPULATION
The population of the country is 200 people. Consumption level
food average - 2 units on a scale from 0 to 5, so mortality
not tall. The material standard of living is low (2 on a scale from 0 to 15), and therefore
The country has a high birth rate. As a result, the population doubles every
30 years, despite attempts to reduce the growth rate. Although the country has the opportunity
improve nutrition levels, some products are exported to ensure imports
necessary energy resources.
ENERGY RESOURCES
The main source of energy in the country is energy resources generated by hydroelectric power stations. If
necessary, oil can be imported. Energy saving has not been developed in the country
, so each unit of productive capital requires three times as much
energy compared to costs for optimal energy saving. Although the country
imports energy resources, they are not enough to fully ensure production
food and goods. In the near future, energy development may
increase the amount of energy resources in the country.

GOODS AND SOCIAL SERVICES
The country has large reserves for increasing the productivity of goods production.
Labor productivity is only 1/10 of what it could be
achieved at optimal capital investments in the production of goods and
social services. Regarding social services - education and medical
provision, then insufficient funding in this area led to a decline
labor productivity and high birth rates.
FOOD AND THE ENVIRONMENT.
Although the country is currently a food exporter,
Productivity in this sector is significantly lower than it could be.
The environment was heavily polluted. Agriculture of the country
received insufficient capital investment. Currently
Environmental pollution reduces food production by 31%. Maximum
investment in food production, sufficient
energy resources, the required level of investment in environmental protection
can increase food production by 9 times.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCE.
Currently, the country has no external debt. Therefore, you can take out a loan
foreign banks on terms of 10% per year. Assuming that external debt
exceeds the level of the average export volume, then the interest rate for
loans will increase and the terms of foreign trade will worsen.

Players

1. The Minister for Population Affairs must ensure
regulation of population and growth of living standards.
2. The Minister of Energy is responsible for the production of energy resources and
introduction of energy-saving technologies.
3. The Minister of Industry and Social Services is responsible for
industrial production and social services - (medical
provision and education).
4. Minister of Agriculture and Environment
responsible for food production and condition
environment.
5. The Minister of Foreign Trade and Finance is responsible for foreign
trade and finance coordination of decision making.

Minister
Agricultural
Products
nutrition
and OS
Minister for
problems
POPULATION
population
Minister
Energy resources
energy
Minister
industrially
Goods
sti and
social services
Energy production
Minister of Energy
Capital
investments in
development
industries:
Energy efficiency
Production
goods
Minister
industry
And
social services
Development of the social sphere
Agricultural: Food production
Minister of Agriculture and Environment
Environment protection
Minister
external
trade and
finance
EXPORT

Provision of the population
goods (equal to 2 out of 15)
Real countries
(Latin America 1984)
Lack of private cars, lack
high-tech products
Provision of the population
food (equal to 2 out of 5)
The population can afford a cup
rice/beans 3 times a day
Social services per capita
population (equal to 2.25 out of 20)
One school for several districts
cities, one hospital per 250,000
Human
Problems in the energy sector
sector (energy crisis)
Hydroelectric power stations are mainly used
some petroleum products
imported
Game conditions

results

Management

Feedback

Feedback, the reverse impact of the results of the process on its
the flow or controlled process on the governing body.
Feedback characterizes regulation and control systems in
wildlife, society and technology.
There are positive and negative
If the results of a process reinforce it, then feedback is
positive.
When the results of a process weaken its action, then
negative feedback.
Negative feedback stabilizes the flow of processes.
Positive Feedback, on the contrary, usually leads to
accelerated development of processes and oscillatory processes.

The exponential growth of industrial capital occurs due to
its ability to reproduce itself.
The feedback system representing this self-reproduction
similar to a population system.

A negative feedback loop, a chain of causal relationships that reverses the direction of change, corrects the

Negative feedback loop, chain of causal relationships,
which reverses the direction of change,
corrects the situation, restores balance.
Resource depletion has been overcome. Contaminants are destroyed or
buried. Society can continue to grow.
Such adaptive circuits exist and play an important role.
Technology, healthcare, birth control,

MAIN CAUSE-AND-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP Population With a low standard of living in the country, the birth rate tends to increase - people tend to

MAIN CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS
Population
With a low standard of living in the country, the birth rate tends to increase - people
strive to have more workers in the family. Low level of education
inhibits the dissemination of information about birth control
Poverty contributes to continued population growth as conditions for low levels of
education, health care, lack of family planning and freedom of choice. The only way out
poverty in these countries is seen in creating large families, hoping that children will help their parents with their earnings
or labor.
Both arrows are active and can enhance each other’s influence in the positive feedback loop, strengthening it according to
downwards and forming a vicious circle where the poor remain poor and the population grows. poverty"
led to this. that the successes of agriculture were manifested primarily in the further increase in the number
population and depletion of the planet's resources.

Energy resources

Energy shortage is one of the key problems not only in the game
"Strategy", but also in many countries real world. The solution to this
problem solving is the key to achieving a high level
life of the country's population and balanced economic development.
Environment protection
Negative effects of harmful factors on the environment,
related to the development of agriculture, production of goods and
energy resources can be compensated through investment in
environmental protection. This makes it possible, albeit slowly,
to manifest themselves in environmental regeneration processes. Although the absence
investments in environmental protection in the first periods
games are not particularly noticeable, but the damage done to the environment
production activity accumulates, the environment’s ability to
self-healing declines and thus becomes increasingly difficult and
It is more expensive to return the system to its original state.

Capital Investment Law of Diminishing Returns

MAIN PROBLEMS.
Problem 1.
POPULATION GROWTH.
Population growth is one of the main obstacles to developing
countries towards balanced development both in real life and in the game
"Stratagem"
Fertility and mortality.
Problem 2
LIMITED ENERGY RESOURCES.
In the game "Stratagem", as in real life, there are restrictions on energy resources
- one of the main obstacles on the country’s path to balanced development and
high standard of living. There are 4 main ways to resolve this
Problems:
1. Expansion of production capacity (in the game "Stratagem" this means
construction of dams and hydroelectric power stations, power lines).
2. Import of energy resources. (Currency for imports is obtained from exports or loans to
foreign banks).
3. Increasing energy efficiency in food production
food and goods.
4. Preferential right to invest in less energy-intensive sectors
economics (for example, social services).

problem 3.
INCREASING PRODUCTION OUTPUT.
In the Stratagem game there are three ways to increase the production of goods:
1. Increased productivity
In agriculture
increase investment per unit of cultivated land;
prevent a decrease in labor productivity, which falls if
food consumption per capita is decreasing;
improve environmental quality (through investment in
environmental protection).
In industry
increase capital investment per unit of labor;
prevent a decline in labor productivity, which can happen if
the level of social services will decrease;
improve the standard of living of the population by allocating an appropriate amount
goods for consumption.
2. Efficient use of production capacity.
3. Balance of decisions taking into account feedback and indirect
consequences in other sectors of the economy.

Evaluation of results

For “credit” groups:
For the result - 20 game points = 20 points,
5 points for the report. Maximum 25 points
For those taking the exam:
For the result - 20 game points = 10 points
5 points for the report. Maximum 15 points
According to the results of the game
Each minister submits a personal report.
Each team is given two attempts:
Trial + test!!! Donnella Meadows
“The ABC of Systems Thinking”, 2011
Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Renders, Dennis Meadows
"Limits to Growth: 30 Years Later", 2012
J.Forrester
"World Dynamics", 1971
Alan Atkisson
"Believe Cassandra: How to be Optimistic"
a person in a pessimistic world", 2004

By March 14:

Divide into teams of 5
people(ministers)
Come up with a team name (country, not
more than 5 latin characters), password (not
more than 5 Latin characters)
Teams must provide composition, name and
password by e-mail on

Everyone study the dictionary of terms and typical
mistakes!

Good luck!

MINISTER OF POPULATION PROBLEMS

Applications:
MINISTER OF POPULATION PROBLEMS
The goal is to stabilize the population and achieve
high level of provision of food, goods and
high level of social services
Solution 1. Select from the total available quantity of products
food part for consumption (for the population) and part for export
(if necessary).
Solution 2. Select a part from the total available quantity of goods
for consumption (for the population), part for financing
industry and agriculture and part for export (if this
necessary).

MINISTER OF ENERGY

The goal is to achieve full satisfaction of the needs of the population, agriculture and
industrial production in energy resources
Solution 1. Distribute all available energy resources. Amount of energy resources,
necessary for the population ( public utilities and household needs) is determined
as follows: for every 5 units of goods allocated by the Minister for
population problems for consumption, you need to allocate 1 unit
energy resources. This need must always be satisfied. The remaining part
energy resources must be distributed for the needs of production (agriculture
and production of goods) and can be left in reserve for the next period.
Decision 2. Distribute energy resources allocated for production needs.
Solution 3. Distribute the entire quantity of goods allocated for capital investment.
You must allocate the required amount of goods for investment in
production of energy resources and energy saving.

MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND SOCIAL SERVICES

The goal is to increase the production of goods to a level
providing a higher material level
life of the population, the required volume of exports and
investment in the economy, including in the sector
social services. Improve the level of education and
public health, and thereby improve
effectiveness of birth control
Solution. Distribute all goods allocated to
financing. You must allocate products for
financing the production of goods and sectors
social services.

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

The goal is to increase the level of nutrition of the population and ensure
required level of export income
food by increasing production
food and environmental improvement
environment
Solution Distribute all goods allocated to
financing. You must determine the quantity
goods to finance the production of products
nutrition and environmental sectors.

MINISTER OF FOREIGN TRADE AND FINANCE

The goal is to use foreign trade opportunities to the maximum
meet the country's needs for goods, food and
energy resources. At the same time, external debt should not exceed
the level from which foreign banks apply
special sanctions to protect your loans
Solution 1: Bring together all export potential and
foreign aid.
Decision 2. Decide on a new foreign loan.
Decision 3. Decide to pay interest on the debt.
Decision 4: Decide to import.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS

- method of study
development processes in complex systems,
developed by the American scientist J.
Forrester in the mid-1950s.
Special attention is given to accounting and
modeling numerous inverses
connections in the system.

ROMAN CLUB
In 1970, J. Forrester was invited to a meeting
Club of Rome in Bern, Switzerland.
Club of Rome - organization, activities
which consists in predicting paths
development of humanity and identifying possible
crisis situations, for example global
crisis caused by limited resources
Earth combined with exponentially growing
population.
At this meeting, Forrester was asked a question about
possibilities of applying system dynamics to
modeling of humanity.

The scheme proposed by D. Meadows is very clear. A man plans his activities
for a certain period of time: some for one day, some for 1 week, for 1 year, for 1
generation (25 years), for 2 generations (50 years). At the same time, a person may be concerned about how
the life of your family, the country and even the whole world as a whole.
Rice. Distribution of people into groups depending on the scale of the prospects that concern them.

results
research
were
published
V
book
"World
dynamics" (1971), it said that
further development of mankind
physically limited planet Earth
will lead to an environmental disaster in the 20s
years of the next century.
Project by D. Meadows “Limits to Growth” (1972)
- first report to the Club of Rome.