Arguments and Facts" learned the opinion of residents of Donetsk and fighters of the armed forces of the DPR about whether we should expect an offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces in the near future and who benefits from a new escalation. Information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have completed the regrouping of forces on the line of contact and may soon move on the offensive, began to prevail in the information environment of the DPR, writes AiF.ru.

The other day, the head of the republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, said that he had information about Ukraine’s readiness to move to full-scale hostilities, and the speaker of the DPR Ministry of Defense, Eduard Basurin, announced information about an impending provocation of the enemy with the aim of military escalation of the conflict.

It should be noted that during the “Minsk truce” they made many similar statements, but now both officials and ordinary soldiers and city residents agree that a new round of war will soon begin. AiF.ru spoke with residents of Donetsk about what actions they expect from the Ukrainian troops.

Galina, pensioner:

Sooner or later, it seems to me, the Ukrainians, of course, will go on the offensive. They drove such an army to our borders for a reason. But I think maybe it’s for the best, they’ll get it in the teeth and wash themselves with blood. Maybe then they'll sober up. The shelling will stop and we will be left alone. Zakharchenko said: “We are ready, we are waiting. Go."

Sergey, 35 years old:

These rumors about the offensive have been circulating for two years now. For two years they have been telling us that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been accumulating forces, have amassed an incredible amount of equipment and personnel, and then the roads have not yet dried, then they have turned to Kyiv, or something else. I personally don’t believe in any offensive. A couple of times there was an imitation of the offensive near Mariupol and Debaltsevo, and that’s all. They shot and it died out.

It seems to me that the shelling will continue to continue, sometimes turning into more intense fighting in certain areas to intensify passions. And then we will go to Minsk again and discuss the reasons for the exacerbations that have arisen. Our people are patient, they get used to everything, so this state can last a long time.

Kyiv will act in the Donbass according to the “Serbian scenario”, which was implemented by the Croatian armed forces during operations “Lightning” and “Storm”.

At the moment, the most dangerous sections of the front for the resumption of active hostilities are the southern section of the front, where the narrowest section to the border with Russia is located, as well as the area of ​​the so-called Avdeevskaya industrial zone and the Gorlovka direction, where the most likely direction of attacks are the areas of Krasny Partizan and Vasilyevka.

The option of simultaneous strikes in all selected directions has also not been ruled out. The only question is at what point the Ukrainian government will decide to resume hostilities after the final regrouping of its forces along the entire demarcation line, which is now coming to an end.

But the possibility of an accidental outbreak, which will result in full-scale fighting, as it already happened in January of this year.

DPR armed forces fighter, call sign “Akula”:

According to intelligence data, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively preparing for offensive actions. Equipment is being built up, and in the area of ​​​​responsibility of our unit the enemy has replaced the conscripts (conscripts - ed.) with Azov nationalists. Also, under a far-fetched pretext, they are evacuating civilians from an adjacent settlement, and this is a sure sign of an offensive. We were transferred to an enhanced state of combat readiness. We have prepared several surprises for uninvited guests. We are waiting, as they say, with impatience.

“First wave” militiaman, correspondent, writer Gennady Dubovoy:

Not being a specialist in military affairs, I assess the situation politically. An offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not excluded, but if it happens, it will not be to achieve a military solution and take control of the borders of the republics, as Poroshenko, Avakov and other Ukrainian politicians say.

It is impossible to solve the “South-East problem” by military means. Kyiv was finally convinced of this in the winter of 2015, after the Debaltsevo cauldron. Now, when the armed forces of the republics are superior to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all respects, the latter will be crushed and crushed to nothing in an attempt at a large-scale offensive. And this means the collapse of the current political leadership of Ukraine.

Kyiv understands this very well. Further. The current situation is beneficial to Kyiv: the existence of the LDPR, presented as “a Russian springboard for the subsequent seizure of the entire territory of our country,” as Poroshenko put it, allows the Ukrainian leadership and its Western curators to pursue a policy of total Ukrainization, consolidate society, carry out repressions, writing off all socio-political problems on the “threat of Russian invasion.”

That is, Kyiv is now interested in the existence of republics. As soon as social unrest begins, a threat to the current regime arises, you can always “turn on the war” and redirect the energy of society to “terrorists and Muscovites”, whose presence in the South-East the Ukrainian media explain all the troubles, primarily the decline “due to the war” already low standard of living.

Let's imagine the impossible. The Armed Forces of Ukraine “cleansed” Donbass, let’s say... What’s next? Who will maintain these territories, where will the treasury of an essentially bankrupt state come from for the restoration of infrastructure, social benefits and the creation of jobs for millions of people? There are no such funds and no one will give them.

Conclusion: the Ukrainian leadership will periodically - based on momentary political expediency (maintaining power) - “turn the war on and off” in Donbass. And the fact that it is mainly civilians in the South-East, whom Kyiv hypocritically continues to call “citizens of Ukraine”, who are paying for these political technological games with blood, does not bother Poroshenko and the company.

Report from the DPR Ministry of Defense November 2, 2017. For three years, the DPR has taken all measures to prepare for a full-scale offensive of Kyiv

Summary from Eduard Basurin on November 02, 2017

Ukrofashists violated the “silence regime” 44 times during the day and fired 1013 ammunition

In three republican directions, the enemy violated the ceasefire 44 times per day. The JCCC observation post in the Bezymennoye area continues to be under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the airport area has also been subjected to the greatest fire impact from Ukrainian positions. The deputy head of the DPR NM Department, Colonel Eduard Basurin, spoke about this today, November 2, during a briefing.

“In the Donetsk direction, the enemy used artillery, mortars, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, different kinds grenade launchers and small arms. 30 tank shells, 292 mines of 120 and 82 mm caliber were fired into the surrounding areas of 12 settlements.

In the Mariupol direction in the adjacent areas of the settlement. Leninskoe and Kominternovo fired 44 mines of 82 mm caliber, grenade launchers and small arms were also used.

In the Gorlovsky direction, the area of ​​the settlement. Zheleznaya Balka units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired from grenade launchers and small arms.
In total, over the past 24 hours, 44 ceasefire violations were recorded from the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The areas near the airport were subjected to the greatest shelling, where the enemy, contrary to the Minsk agreements, continues unsuccessful attempts to push us out of our positions.

Also, mortar attacks continued on the JCCC observation post near Bezymennoye, which became a target point for the punitive forces,” said Eduard Basurin.

The total number of ammunition used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 1013 units.

In the previous day, the number of ammunition used on the territory of the DPR amounted to 761 units.

Training by foreign instructors from Poland, Canada and the USA continues in the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
According to DPR army intelligence, the 199th training center in the Zhytomyr region continues to train Ukrainian Armed Forces units by instructors from NATO member countries: Poland, Canada and the USA. The deputy head of the DPR NM Department, Colonel Eduard Basurin, spoke about this today, November 2, during a briefing.

“Among the trainees is a reconnaissance battalion, staffed by 160 contract soldiers and 200 conscripts. Currently, we are starting to receive appeals from conscript servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about severe hazing and extortion by contract soldiers. All minor violations are punished by physical beatings or bullying, and larger ones are punished by financial “fines” in the so-called common fund of the units.

In addition, military personnel complain that the stated training by foreign instructors is carried out extremely rarely. And instead of classes for which instructors are not involved, trainees repair barracks and classrooms, and also clean the area.

Thus, we can conclude that the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, formed and trained according to NATO standards, are a common fiction, to which multimillion-dollar dollars are once again being written off. cash, and military personnel do not even receive basic military education, which was taught in training camps in Soviet times. Moreover, for all this low-quality education, Ukraine is also being driven into debt by foreign “helpers,” which makes the national debt an unbearable burden for Ukrainians,” Basurin noted.

A woman and a child were injured as a result of a fire in Donetsk - DPR Emergency Situations Ministry
Over the past 24 hours, five fires have occurred on the territory of the Republic. This was reported today, November 2, by the press service of the DPR Ministry of Emergency Situations.

So, in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, on Taimyrskaya Street, a fire broke out in an apartment on the first floor of a two-story apartment building.
A woman born in 1977 was injured, who was hospitalized in a state of moderate severity in the Institutional Institution of Internal Affairs in Donetsk, and a child born in 2010, in a condition of moderate severity, was hospitalized in City Hospital No. 1 in Donetsk. Damaged by fire: used furniture, TV. The cause of the fire is being established. The DPR Ministry of Emergency Situations involved: 2 units of equipment, 7 personnel.

In addition, over the past 24 hours on the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic, sappers carried out 9 inspections of open areas and agricultural fields on an area of ​​2.83 hectares, of which: inspection of premises on an area of ​​2000 square meters. m).

GPs recovered, removed and destroyed:

Artillery shell of 152 mm caliber from the Second World War – 2 units;
- artillery shell of 122 mm caliber – 1 unit;
- artillery shell of 30 mm caliber – 59 units;
- 23 mm artillery shell – 157 units;
- RGM artillery fuse – 16 units;
- VOG-25 – 1 unit;
- VOG-17 – 20 units;
- VOG-17 shot – 6 units;
- VOG-25 shot – 2 units;
- V-90 fuse – 1 unit.

Ministries and departments of the Republic sum up the implementation of the Humanitarian Program for the reunification of the people of Donbass
As part of the implementation of the Humanitarian Program for the reunification of the people of Donbass, as of October 31, the Ministry of Youth, Sports and Tourism of the DPR held 132 events, in which 3,266 people from Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donetsk region took part.

Since the beginning of the program, 194 events have been held through the Ministry of Culture, in which 6,023 compatriots took part.

Employees of the State Enterprise "Donbass Post" in the Centers social assistance and administrative services located at the checkpoints of the Republic, as part of the implementation of the Humanitarian Program, services were provided to 456 residents of areas of the Donetsk region controlled by Ukraine.

On hotline The humanitarian program for the reunification of the people of Donbass for the period from February 21 to October 31 received more than 26,950 appeals, including 21,891 from residents of the DPR, 4,300 from residents of the Ukrainian-controlled territory of the Donetsk region, and 759 from residents of other countries.

During the period under review, 27 meetings of the Joint Inspection were held, at which information on 161 objects located in areas of the Donetsk region controlled by Kyiv was reviewed.

The United Donbass Fund paid the applicants more than 28 million rubles
For the period from May to October of this year, the public organization “United Donbass Fund” paid 28,069,840 rubles to applicants for 959 applications, including residents of the Kyiv-controlled territory of the Donetsk region - 14,847,045 rubles for 495 applications, residents of the DPR - 10,809,096 rubles based on 464 requests.

According to a correspondent of the official website of the DPR, during the period under review, the Fund’s commission to provide financial assistance to residents of Donbass who found themselves in difficult life situations held 13 meetings.

The dynamics of financial assistance payments to the United Donbass Fund NGO by month can be found below.

In the centers of social assistance and administrative services, residents of the territory of Donbass temporarily controlled by Kyiv continue to receive assistance within the framework of the Humanitarian Program
To simplify the procedure for receiving lump sum payments cash assistance For certain categories of citizens living in the territory of the Donetsk region, temporarily controlled by Ukraine, as part of the implementation of the Humanitarian Program for the reunification of the people of Donbass, as well as for them to receive various types of consultations, four centers of social assistance and administrative services were created at checkpoints of entry and exit to the Republic services. These are “Alexandrovka” (Petrovsky district of Donetsk), “Gorlovka” (Gorlovka), “Olenovka” (urban settlement Olenovka), “Oktyabr” (Novoazovsky district of the Donetsk People’s Republic).

On Tuesday, October 31, in one of these centers, located at the Oleksandrivka checkpoint, the anniversary payment was made - the 100th payment of one-time assistance for Victory Day to a veteran of the Great Patriotic War. Patriotic War who took direct part in hostilities in the period from 06/22/1941 to 05/9/1945.

“The veteran turned 91 this year. Despite such an advanced age, she personally came from the territory of the Donetsk region, temporarily controlled by Ukraine, to receive this type of assistance,” said Irina Korsun, an authorized representative of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy of the DPR in the center.

For the full operation of the centers in terms of making payments of one-time cash assistance for Victory Day and Miner’s Day, the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy of the DPR has done preliminary fundamental work.

“All representatives who are involved in work in the centers of social assistance and administrative services have completed the necessary training and internship at the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy of the DPR, whose specialists continue to provide them with methodological assistance on site as necessary. I would also like to note that what is necessary to make such payments is software was developed and adapted by specialists of our Ministry. This software product provides maximum fast exchange information, which helps to minimize the time period for processing payments. The entire procedure takes from 30 minutes to 1 hour.

This is a very important point, given that people who apply for payments live on a different demarcation line and, to cross it, are forced to go through checkpoints, and this, in turn, takes a large number of time,” emphasized Tatyana Litvinenko, director of the department of state social assistance to the population of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy of the DPR.

Since the beginning of the implementation of the Humanitarian Program for the reunification of the people of Donbass, 132 payments of one-time cash assistance have been made in centers of social assistance and administrative services, of which: 101 - for Victory Day, 31 - for Miner's Day.

It should also be recalled that these payments as part of the implementation of the Humanitarian Program for the Reunification of the People of Donbass can be received until December 20 of this year.

As part of the Humanitarian Program, residents of Donbass are provided with free legal assistance
As the press service of the DPR Ministry of Justice reported on November 2, the Yasinovatsky city district justice department summed up the results of its work for 9 months of this year.

The Department of Justice and territorial structural divisions of GIS and State Register received a total of 778 citizens at a personal reception, of which the Department of Justice - 100, the State Executive Service - 454, the Department of Registration of Acts civil status– 39, sector state registration proprietary rights to real estate and their encumbrances (encumbrances) - 132, by the department of technical inventory, accounting and valuation of real estate - 53.

Citizens addressed issues of organizing the implementation of decisions of courts and other bodies, the work of civil registration bodies, the work of state registration bodies of real rights to real estate and their encumbrances (encumbrances) and the work of technical inventory, accounting and valuation of real estate bodies and on the work of bodies notary office

As part of the Humanitarian Program for the Reunification of the People of Donbass, the Justice Department provided free legal assistance to 4 citizens living in the Donetsk region, temporarily controlled by Ukraine.

Zakharchenko promised as soon as possible restore the apartment of a WWII participant damaged by shelling
The head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, promised to quickly restore the apartment of a Great Patriotic War participant living in the Kievsky district of Donetsk, damaged during shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The leader of the state announced this during an online conference with residents of Donbass and Ukraine.

Vladimir Mikhailovich - participant in the Great Patriotic War, colonel. The veteran’s housing is located in the front-line Kiev district of Donetsk, along Buslaeva Street. During shelling by Ukrainian security forces, the apartment was damaged. For help in restoring housing, the WWII participant turned to the Head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko.

“Dear Vladimir Mikhailovich, of course, we will help you. “I will immediately give the command to the adjutant to contact you, and we will repair your apartment as soon as possible,” replied the leader of the Republic. - Veterans of the Great Patriotic War are our reference point. We fought the neo-Nazis, remembering the courage and heroism that you showed on the battlefields of the Great Patriotic War. You were and remain an example for us."

Let us remind you that Alexander Zakharchenko is holding an online conference on the anniversary of the 2014 elections in the DPR. Residents of the Republic, the territory temporarily controlled by Kyiv, as well as Ukraine are invited to communicate.

For crimes against humanity, the Ukrainian authorities will face an inevitable tribunal
The current Ukrainian government will definitely appear before an international tribunal for crimes against humanity. This was stated by the Head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko during an online conference with residents of Donbass and Ukraine.

“We will definitely organize an international tribunal for criminals who have committed crimes against humanity, which, as we know, have no statute of limitations,” the Head of the DPR assured.

He noted that “after our victory, be it military or political,” the current leadership in Kyiv will bear responsibility both for the war in Donbass and for the criminal policy on the territory of Ukraine.

For three years, the DPR has taken all measures to prepare for a full-scale offensive by Kyiv
In three years, the Donetsk People's Republic was able to create modern army, which is ready to repel a full-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, stated this during an online conference with residents of Donbass and Ukraine.

“We have been preparing for this moment (a full-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces – DAN’s note) for three years. We have created a modern army, we constantly conduct exercises, and we have created a full-fledged system of military education,” noted the leader of the Republic. - The overwhelming majority of our residents are confident that sooner or later Kyiv will go on the offensive against us. Frankly, I think so too. Well, we're ready."

The reunification of the territories of Donbass must take place with minimal losses
The restoration of the territorial integrity of the Donetsk People's Republic must take place at the appropriate historical moment and with minimal losses. The Head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, stated this during an online conference with residents of Donbass and Ukraine.

“In order to restore the territorial integrity of our Republic, certain – international, first of all, but not only – circumstances must arise. We do not have the moral right to occupy our cities and then leave them again, since then the terror against our citizens in the occupied territories will be intensified many times over. That is, we must choose a historical moment when our return will be irreversible and associated with minimal losses,” Zakharchenko explained, answering a question from a resident of Artemovsk.

Online conference of Alexander Zakharchenko with residents of the DPR and Ukraine

Tityansky published his detailed commentary, where he accused the DPR leadership of incompetence, indifference to the injured soldiers, appropriating awards to themselves, the lack of ideas of the current army, obstructing humanitarian assistance to soldiers, theft, etc. In addition, Tityansky blamed the leadership for the fact that they were removed or ideological and authoritative commanders were killed.

“Comrade military commissar, don’t you see on what principle the current army is built? You are turning to the ideological militias of the first wave, for a second. Please show the ideological nature of the current army, in which for a year and a half you could be jailed for returning fire, while time when soldiers died in positions from Ukrainian fire,”- Tityansky complains.

"Under what banners are you calling us? Under what idea? And who will lead us? Understand one thing simple thing: those of the departed ideological ones who served under the leadership of real commanders, such as, for example, I.I. Strelkov, A. Mozgova and I.N. Bezler, they are unlikely to serve under the command of today’s mummered reindeer, to whom a normal warrior would not even grant a military greeting,”- the former militiaman accuses.

He notes that he does not see the purpose of the conscription, so he is forced to think it out, and the very idea that the DPR will return to Ukraine causes him to protest. Moreover, the militias of the first wave did not fight for this at all.

“How do you imagine the return of the militias to service while the DPR is participating in the Minsk “peace” negotiation process? While, according to all the documents signed there, our mummered leadership advocates that we are not the DPR, but individual regions Donetsk region of Ukraine!? Do you want us to participate in this clownery?"- asks Tityansky.

Let’s try to analyze the current situation, especially since this opinion is actually held by some of the ideological militias who provided invaluable assistance to Donbass.

The reaction itself is undoubtedly caused by disappointment that Donbass has not yet become part of Russia. In the fall of 2014, for many in Donbass, the understanding of this fact came as a big blow.

Accusations of the DPR leadership of theft, enrichment and malicious intent have also been heard since then, but no facts have been presented. Yes, there are rumors in Donetsk and other cities that certain government members have taken over markets, gas stations, supermarkets, scrap metal removal, etc. But accusations require more significant evidence, which has not happened and does not exist - neither in life nor online. Therefore, there are no compelling reasons for suspicion.

Regarding difficulties in supply, treatment, restoration and others important issues, then the residents themselves respond to the accusations of the DPR leadership here. According to public surveys, residents of the DPR mostly approve and support the activities of the government, expressing support and understanding that it is doing everything in its power. Yes, acting Head of the Republic Alexander Zakharchenko. In June 2016, 56% of residents assessed the government’s activities positively: 21% were satisfied with its work, 35% said that the government was making every possible effort. 33% expressed a neutral attitude towards the activities of the authorities, and only 7% were negative. These numbers are quite eloquent.

True, compared to the end of 2015, the positive assessment of the government’s activities decreased slightly (from 63%), but the negative attitude also decreased (from 10%). Therefore, in conditions when the majority of residents have a positive attitude towards the authorities, there is no reason to talk about hostility towards the leadership of the DPR. It is possible and even probable that any government does not complete its work, and even more so in conditions of war and a lack of managerial personnel. But this is clearly not enough for accusations of malicious intent.

But regarding the essence of the issue - the call to return to the DPR army - the leadership of the Republic has grounds for this. According to a source close to the government, there are two main reasons for this.

Firstly, Ukraine, especially in conditions of internal contradictions, is becoming more unpredictable, which means this is fraught with complications at the front. Possible arrival in the White House Hillary Clinton also sharply increases the likelihood of a large-scale war between Ukraine and Donbass. In these conditions, experienced personnel with combat experience behind them will be very valuable.

And secondly, the socio-economic situation in the DPR remains difficult: there is very little work, only the budgetary sector and defense are consistently funded. Therefore, the call to return to the army is at the same time a way to reduce the level of discontent (especially the militias are ideological people), and to increase the level of employment, and to improve the financial situation of residents. The Ukrainian subsidiary of the European research concern GfK Group provided data in July that the unemployment rate in the DPR is 20%. At the same time, the income of the military in the DPR is perhaps the highest. By Russian standards, of course, this is not much, but in conditions of war and the blockade of Donbass by Ukraine, such salaries are considered very good. The average salary in the DPR is 5-6 thousand rubles. At some enterprises, specialists earn 10-15 thousand, but there are not many of them. This is approximately the maximum that can be counted on today in the DPR. In the army, the salary of just a private is about 15 thousand.

Finally, the question of the pointlessness of returning to the army under the terms of the Minsk agreements needs to be redirected, as everyone understands, to the Russian leadership. Blaming the DPR authorities for this would be not only wrong, but also harmful: there is a war going on, and any grumbling against the authorities plays into the hands of the enemy, who does not miss the opportunity to send some “news” to the Donbass about another betrayal. After all, how many times has Russia “leaked” Donbass, and each time “finally”. So the problem of disagreement with the Minsk agreements goes beyond the DPR itself and is a political position. But in politics you can’t always do what you want. We have to correlate desires with possibilities.

First Prime Minister of the DPR Alexander Borodai in a recent interview noted that the Minsk agreements have achieved most of their goals.

"We all understand perfectly well that negotiations do not always have the goal that is stated. This is what happened with Minsk. It gave both Russia and Donbass a lot. The republics strengthened their statehood. They allowed representatives of Donbass to turn from objects of negotiations with others countries into subjects. They are assigned certain rights, and this is fundamental, given the difficult foreign policy situation around Donbass, including the situation in which Russia finds itself, providing assistance to Donbass,”- Borodai emphasized.

And it is true. The agreements legitimized the existence of Donbass as a party to the conflict. Another thing is that Kyiv ignores this. But was it in Russia’s interests to further contribute to the war by setting fire to other regions of Ukraine? This question is not so simple. On the one hand, Russia should have given more support to the rebel Novorossiya. On the other hand, Russia is not yet ready to take on the responsibility of maintaining vast territories. Yes, after Crimea people expected more. But if this had happened at least 10 years ago, Russia would not have been able to do anything at all, even with Crimea. So dissatisfaction with the current situation is largely unfulfilled expectations and has little to do with sober analysis. And the difficulty of Russia’s position is that it does not need a warring state on its own borders. The war was localized and largely muted. One can only guess what considerations guided the top Russian leadership when making this decision. And discussing guesses in the absence of the necessary information makes no sense. Regarding the early conclusion of the Minsk agreements (before the liberation of at least the entire Donbass), Borodai said that this is “the prerogative of diplomats and politicians.” It's hard to argue with this.

According to a source in the DPR army, they know that if the DPR goes on the offensive without an order, then Russia will not help, which will mean disaster. Under these conditions, emotional dissatisfaction with the current situation is quite understandable, but political realities impose their own adjustments. After all, behind the back of Donbass, in the literal and figurative sense, is Russia, which means that all decisions must be made in the state interests of Russia. In the end, it was precisely for this right that Donbass rebelled. And he is fighting for the future of Russia, not Ukraine, although formally this is not the case.

The militias of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are capable of seizing the territory of the entire Donbass at any moment. Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), former head of the Ukrainian mission to NATO, told the Observer portal about this on Wednesday, March 1 Petr Garashchuk.

“From a military point of view, the quasi-republics have accumulated enough military equipment, ammunition, personnel for, say, a limited operation. The purpose of such an operation could be the capture of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions,” he said.

Let us recall that previously the head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko has repeatedly stated that the militias are ready to take control of the entire territory of the Donetsk region by military means, if this cannot be done through political means.

February 28 Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Alexander Turchinov stated that the Ukrainian army would “clean up” the territory of Donbass in a month.

Let us note that Turchynov is far from the only Ukrainian politician who has recently predicted a “cleansing” of Donbass. February 20, Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov stated that Kyiv will regain control over Donbass within the next year and a half. At the end of January, the Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons of Ukraine said that Kyiv intends to return the uncontrolled territory in Donbass in 2017 Vadim Chernysh. A few days earlier, the already mentioned Arsen Avakov called on Ukrainian border guards to prepare for the “de-occupation” of Donbass. At the end of last year, the same figure for the “return” of Donbass - 2017 was mentioned by the Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons Georgy Tuka.

In this regard, I would like to understand how justified the fears of the Ukrainian general are, and, at the same time, what is the reason for the constant promises of Ukrainian politicians and military personnel to “clean up” Donbass as soon as possible?

According to Assistant Chief of Staff of the 4th RShB Alexander "Varyag" Matyushin, The Donetsk Republic has enough strength to liberate its territories.

“As the experience of the Ilovaisky, Debaltsevo cauldrons and Donetsk airport shows, we have enough strength to liberate our territories, we have accumulated enough equipment, our troops have a very high combat level. Unfortunately, there is not yet enough political will among the leadership to reject the Minsk agreements and go on the offensive.

It is not at all clear to us why these Minsk agreements are needed. Because this is some kind of long-term geopolitical strategy or something else. But in any case, the DPR troops are always ready to liberate Donbass, push the enemy beyond the Dnieper, beyond the natural borders of Novorossiya, all the way to Galicia.

"SP":— Why is the Ukrainian general talking about this now? They were so frightened by nationalization that they seriously decided that the DPR would now leave Minsk?

“He talks about this because the morale of the Ukrainian army is falling, and it has become impossible to hide, and if not for the volunteer battalions, the war would have long ago moved to a completely different stage. At the same time, the decisive actions of our government in response to the blockade, and the blockade itself - all this indicates that Kyiv no longer sees any other way out for itself other than a full-fledged escalation of the conflict, withdrawal from Minsk and the transition from a positional to a full-scale war with the goal of destroying the young republics and their populations according to the Yugoslav scenario, which was already worked out in the 90s during Operation Storm against the Serbian Krajina.

"SP":— What do you think is the likelihood that Kyiv will decide on a full-fledged offensive in the near future? Every day they almost declare that they will “liberate” Donbass in 2017...

— It is not entirely clear what Kyiv is guided by, but full-scale hostilities could begin any day now. It's all a matter of time. It is very difficult to predict exactly when they might start. Any spark can ignite a flame, and a full-scale war can begin. Any artillery shelling, any reconnaissance in force can develop into full-fledged combat operations, which will inevitably lead to the formation of new cauldrons.

First of all - the Avdeevsky Cauldron, the Mariupol Cauldron - in the south, the Maryinsky Cauldron - in the southwest. In any case, Kyiv will be defeated, a new “Minsk-3” will arise, as a result of which we will increase the territory that will be under our control.

“If there is political will, it is quite possible to occupy the entire territory of the regions,” I am sure Odessa writer Igor Nemodruk.

“But, it seems to me, such an order is not coming because the two regions do not solve the problem; we need Novorossiya, at a minimum, or the whole of Ukraine, at a maximum.” But Ukraine has not yet “matured”. It is necessary that it reach such a point that even the Maidanists would greet us with a feeling of relief. I think it won't be long now. And the nationalization of oligarch Akhmetov’s enterprises plays into our hands in this regard. The oligarchs got everyone here and there. And we have a great example. They stirred up Maidan against the oligarchs, and their oligarchs are in power. And the “vatniks” and “separatists” achieved what they declared on the Maidan.

"SP":— How long would it theoretically take to occupy the areas, and how difficult would it be? Will there be big losses?

— It’s hard for me to say about the time. And losses... Again, it all depends on the situation. It is quite possible that the moment will come when the Armed Forces of Ukraine “turn their bayonets” towards Kyiv. Or they will have a squabble with the terbats. Or there will be a coup in Ukraine, and the situation will go wrong for them, and there will simply be no one to fight with us.

And if we go on the offensive now, given the current situation, then there will, of course, be losses.

"SP":— Ukrainian politicians and military officials have recently often talked about the “de-occupation” of Donbass in 2017. Do you think this is just bravado or do they seriously have a plan for an operation like the Croatian “Storm”?

“I don’t think they have enough strength for such a plan.” On paper it may exist, so why not draw it? But in life it is unlikely to be realized. All their statements and statements in 80% of cases sound “to the public.” And more often to the internal than to the external public. They have problems inside through the roof. The junta would really like our offensive now. It would help them out a lot, even just to have an excuse to flee to the West, with stolen capital, with the status of a “government in exile.” It would be just a fairy tale for them.

“My level of knowledge of the issue and understanding of the situation suggests that there are certain grounds for such a statement,” says political scientist Eduard Popov.

— At least in the political circles of both republics, the prospect of liberating the territories of the DPR and LPR occupied by Ukraine was considered. At the same time, in the circles of the Ukrainian national battalions, the issue of leaving part of the Donbass territories to occupy a more convenient line of defense was considered. In addition, the most adequate Ukrainian military and volunteers understand that they are on the territory of Donbass as occupiers: the local population hates them and will support the forces of the republics at the first opportunity. But, on the other hand, the republics will delay the liberation of their territories until the last moment, until Ukraine finally signs its renunciation of the Minsk agreements. I believe we should see both this year.

"SP":— Ukrainian politicians and military officials have recently often talked about the “de-occupation” of Donbass in 2017. How does this fit with the current statement by the Ukrainian general that the militias will reach the borders of the regions?

— They are talking about the imminent “de-occupation” of Donbass starting in 2014. I remember that they stated then that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were capable of “liberating” Donbass in 2-3 weeks. 3 years have already passed, and now the republics of Donbass are delivering ultimatums to Kyiv, which finds itself between the hammer of the republics and the anvil of volunteer battalions and non-loyal units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is also true that at present the military forces of Ukraine, concentrated near the borders of the DPR-LPR, are many times stronger than the armed forces of the republics - stronger in quantitative terms. But the same thing happened in 2014, and in 2015, and at the beginning of 2017. A new large-scale offensive by Ukraine will lead to an influx of a huge number of volunteers from Russia, the same Cossacks who are ready to move into Donbass in large numbers, as well as volunteers from South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and other countries. And this influx of volunteers with combat experience and ideologically motivated will quickly change the military situation.

If, God forbid, the Ukrainian Armed Forces begin barbaric bombing of the cities of Donbass in the spirit of World War II, then the urgent intervention of Russia will probably become inevitable, which will not allow the destruction of the peaceful cities of Donbass. But there is another factor that should not be discounted: the internal Ukrainian split is now deepening. Not only the national battalions, but also parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are gradually leaving subordination to their “commander-in-chief,” are trying to stop trade with the republics of Donbass, which is beneficial for President-oligarch Poroshenko.

Another illustrative example: the Azov regiment, part of the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, previously opposed the blockade, now its militants are in the ranks of the “blockade survivors”. This decision, I am sure, indicates that “White Leader” Biletsky rationally calculated the risks and chances of victory and bet on the winners. Therefore, an alternative to a new big war in Donbass could be a revolt of military units and volunteer battalions. I have already referred to one interesting publication on the American website The Greenville Post, which provided insider information about the mood within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Already in December, plans for an armed revolt against the Poroshenko regime were discussed in parts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces located in the ATO zone. Soldiers and some commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces speak with varying degrees of frankness about the campaign against Kyiv. This material dates back to December last year. Current events confirm these sentiments and plans. In particular, soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine spoke about this during conversations with Nadezhda Savchenko. And the very participation of Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the blockade confirms the gradual loss of loyalty to the ruling regime, which came to power as a result of the coup. The coup was carried out by volunteer fighters. Now they feel deceived and are not averse to carrying out a new coup. The novelty of the situation is that now the until recently apolitical army is ready to support them.